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Internal
Assignment Applicable for December 2017 Examination
Decision
Analysis & Modeling
1. Even though there are many auto
rickshaw manufactures, two companies Bajaj and M&M, control the market in
Maharashtra. If both the companies make similar design changes in their auto
rickshaws in a year, their market shares will remain unchanged. Similarly if
neither of them goes for any changes, then also their market shares will remain
constant. But if incase one company goes for a design change and other doesn’t
then the market shares are going to change, the payoff matrix for increase or decrease
in market share under different possible scenarios is given below:
|
|
|
Bajaj
|
||
|
M&M
|
|
No changes
|
Small changes
|
Major changes
|
|
No changes
|
0
|
-4
|
-10
|
|
|
Small changes
|
3
|
0
|
5
|
|
|
Major changes
|
8
|
1
|
0
|
|
Find the value of the game. What changes
should M&M consider if this information is only available to it? (10 Marks)
2. Using suitable examples discuss the
difference between simple linear regression and logistic regression. (10 Marks)
3. To assemble a “Drone”, Mukesh has laid
out the seven major activities involved. The activities are labeled as A
through G in the following table, which also shows their various completion
times (in Hrs) and immediate predecessor of each activity.
|
ACTIVITY
|
MOST OPTIMISTIC TIME
|
MOST LIKELY TIME
|
MOST PESSIMISTIC TIME
|
IMMEDIATE PREDECESSOR
|
|
A
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
-
|
|
B
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
-
|
|
C
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
A
|
|
D
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
B
|
|
E
|
2
|
5
|
8
|
C,D
|
|
F
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
D
|
|
G
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
E,F
|
a. Determine the expected time and
variance for each activity. (5 Marks)
b. Determine the critical path for the
project. What is the probability of completing the project in less than 25
hours?
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